Republican groups have spent an estimated $183 million on television ads focused on transgender issues through October 25, 2026, according to figures the Associated Press reported from AdImpact. That compares with about $151 million at the same point in 2024. Democrats have spent roughly $11 million, mostly on defense.
As they typically do, when the GOP is losing, they pivot to the boogeyman of the hour; sometimes it’s immigrants, other times it was gays, but their favorite attack in the past few years is a slivery minority in the U.S.A., transgender people. Ironically, or sadly, when the GOP went after gay people, GOP Congressmen and Senators kept surfacing and getting caught in gay scandals of their own. While I don’t expect to see that play out with the transgender community, the pattern of the GOP is consistent: find a culture war and beat the drum about it until the voters forget about everything else. The onslaught about transgender athletes was the perfect example of a solution in search of a problem. And while transgender people have likely zero impact on the lives of GOP voters, the RNC knows how to tweak and enrage their base and lose focus on how bad the GOP has governed. It isn’t hard to imagine a GOP voter thinking, “sure, the economy sucks, but at least they stop men from competing in girls’ sports!”
Transgender policy has become a fixture of this year’s campaign advertising, a theme our transgender history and education hub places in a longer historical context. This report draws on the Associated Press report, “Republicans emphasize transgender ads, putting cultural issues over voters’ economic anxiety,” and PolitiFact’s August 28 analysis, “Why Republicans are focusing on transgender issues in competitive 2026 campaigns,”, attributes every figure to its source, and is a news summary, not legal, medical or voting advice.
How much have Republicans spent on transgender-themed TV ads?
Republican groups have spent an estimated $183 million on television ads centered on transgender-related attacks against Democrats through October 25, 2026.
According to the Associated Press report, “Republicans emphasize transgender ads, putting cultural issues over voters’ economic anxiety,”, by Steve Peoples and Aaron Kessler and published October 28, the ads have aired about 217,000 times nationwide. The totals come from tallies that the ad-tracking firm AdImpact provided to the news service.
The reporting frames the spending as a test of a political question: whether a cultural issue can carry as much weight with voters as concerns about the economy and about President Donald Trump’s leadership. Voters will decide on Election Day, November 3.
How does the spending compare with 2024 and with Democrats?
The Republican total is higher than it was at the same point two years ago, and Democratic spending on the subject is far smaller.
The Associated Press reports that Republican spending on similar ads reached about $151 million at this stage before the 2024 election. Democrats, by contrast, have spent roughly $11 million on transgender-related ads in 2026, and the news service describes most of that as defensive: ads responding to Republican attacks rather than advancing a Democratic message on the subject.
PolitiFact reported in August that Republicans were reviving a 2024 strategy in competitive Senate and gubernatorial races. In the closing weeks of the 2024 campaign, Trump attacked then-Vice President Kamala Harris on transgender issues, and the 2026 ads reprise that approach.
Which races are drawing the most transgender-related ad spending?
The Texas Senate race has drawn the largest share, followed by Ohio, Kansas, and South Carolina, according to AdImpact data the Associated Press cited.
In Texas, the contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has seen about $58 million in spending and more than 50,000 airings. The Associated Press reports that a political action committee largely funded by Elon Musk has run at least three ads against Talarico, and that one of them aired about 17,000 times at a cost of more than $23 million. The news service notes that Talarico opposes gender-reassignment surgery for minors.
In Ohio, ads from Republican groups led by the Senate Leadership Fund PAC against Democrat Sherrod Brown have cost nearly $26 million. Brown’s campaign has called the ads untrue and a distraction from economic issues. The Associated Press reports that PolitiFact rated one ad false and that the attack twists a 2023 interview with Brown.
In Kansas, the Senate race has seen about 7,000 airings at nearly $7 million, and South Carolina has topped $5 million. The Associated Press adds that Republicans are also investing heavily in Iowa and Mississippi.
What have fact-checkers found about the ads?
PolitiFact found that several of the ads omitted context or distorted candidates’ statements.
In its August analysis, PolitiFact said an ad aimed at Kansas Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, misleadingly stitched together clips and attributed to him a quote he never said by combining separate sentences from a 2021 podcast. In that podcast, PolitiFact reported, Hamilton expressed support for same-sex marriage and challenged conservative Christian views but did not outline specific transgender policy positions.
The same analysis rated False an Iowa ad from Republican Representative Ashley Hinson saying Democrat Josh Turek supports sex changes for kids. It also noted that gender transition surgery for minors is exceedingly rare, that no medical guidelines support it for young children, and that medical care for minors requires parental consent. This post reports those findings as PolitiFact’s and does not offer medical or legal guidance.
The Republican National Committee has defended the broader messaging. A spokesperson, Hunter Lovell, said in PolitiFact’s reporting that Democrats are defending gender-transition procedures for children and allowing boys into girls’ locker rooms and sports.
What does polling say about how much voters care?
Polling shows that transgender issues rank well below the economy for most voters, even as some policy positions poll well for Republicans.
An AP-NORC poll conducted in October found that about 1 in 10 registered voters call transgender issues one of the most important issues in the election, while roughly 8 in 10 cite the economy or cost of living. Health care also ranks above transgender issues, according to the Associated Press. Republicans are more likely than independents and Democrats to call the issue highly important, though it still ranks below other concerns for them.
PolitiFact cited separate 2025 surveys showing that 69 percent of U.S. adults in Gallup polling say transgender athletes should play only on teams matching their birth sex, and that 56 percent of respondents in Pew Research Center polling support a ban on transition-related medical care for minors. PolitiFact also cited a July 2026 Pew finding that voters consistently rank the economy and affordability as their top midterm issues, and an April 2026 Fox News poll in which voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans on transgender issues by 13 points.
Voters in Colorado and Washington also face transgender-related measures on the ballot itself, which we covered in our report on transgender ballot measures in Colorado and Washington.
How have Democrats responded to the ads?
Democratic responses have varied by candidate, and PolitiFact described them as fractured.
Talarico in Texas and Turek in Iowa have said they oppose gender-affirming surgeries for minors without endorsing a broad ban on medical treatment, according to PolitiFact. A spokesperson for Hamilton’s campaign, Tyson Brody, said Hamilton does not think girls should compete against boys and opposes surgeries for children, but that no one should attack or demean a vulnerable group for political points. Brown’s campaign has focused on calling the ads a distraction from economic issues.
In 2025, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff said school districts and athletic associations should set participation rules, and he opposed a statewide K-12 sports restriction as overreach. The divisions inside the party were the subject of our earlier report: Democrats split over transgender policy as the midterms approach.
Do the ads actually change votes?
Analysts say it is unclear whether the ads persuade voters or mainly energize people who already agree.
Republican pollster Chris Wilson told the Associated Press that voters can treat a candidate’s position as a proxy for broader values and judgment, and that the party will find out on Election Day whether the strategy worked. He also questioned whether such ads still persuade voters or mostly reinforce existing views.
In PolitiFact’s reporting, Andrew Flores of American University said the ads focus on issues on which majorities already disagree with Democrats and may mobilize people at the margins, but that it is unclear they persuade. TJ Billard of Northwestern University said gender issues can serve as a focal point for broader anxiety about cultural change. Lanae Erickson of the think tank Third Way said that when candidates stay silent, voters may infer extreme views on social issues generally, and that some indications suggest the attacks are backfiring. Don Haider-Markel of the University of Kansas said anti-transgender messaging was less effective in the 2025 gubernatorial and recent special elections.
PolitiFact also noted that the 2024 effect is contested. Terry Schilling of the American Principles Project said on a January 2026 podcast that the ads swung more voters to Trump than anything else, and that group’s research found the ads made voters more likely to back him. Blueprint 2024 research found the messaging convinced some swing voters that Harris was too focused on cultural issues. PolitiFact said the impact is unclear.
Psychologist Dr. Bart Rossi, who writes about the psychology of politics, argues that the strategy works by turning a group most voters have never knowingly met into an abstract threat, and that familiarity is what undoes it. Pointing to a field experiment in which a single ten-minute conversation durably reduced anti-transgender prejudice among voters, Rossi writes that “a hundred million dollars can manufacture fear of a stranger, but a conversation with an actual person can undo it.”
What should readers keep in mind?
The spending totals are estimates from a commercial ad-tracking firm as relayed by a news service, and they run only through October 25. Final figures will be higher by Election Day. Readers following the broader subject can find background in our Society & Culture coverage, and a related example of campaign-season messaging in our report on fake mailers impersonating Texas transgender groups.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much have Republicans spent on transgender-themed TV ads in 2026?
An estimated $183 million through October 25, 2026, across about 217,000 airings, according to AdImpact tallies provided to the Associated Press.
How does that compare with 2024?
The Associated Press reports that Republican spending on similar ads was about $151 million at the same point before the 2024 election.
How much have Democrats spent on transgender-related ads?
Roughly $11 million, largely to defend themselves against Republican attacks, according to the Associated Press.
Which race has seen the most spending?
The Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, with about $58 million and more than 50,000 airings, according to AdImpact data cited by the Associated Press.
How important is the issue to voters?
In an AP-NORC poll in October, about 1 in 10 registered voters called transgender issues one of the most important issues in the election, while roughly 8 in 10 cited the economy or cost of living.
Do the ads change how people vote?
That is unclear. A Republican pollster told the Associated Press that voters may treat a candidate’s position as a proxy for broader values, and PolitiFact reported that the size of the effect in 2024 is uncertain.
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